Financial Report ~ June 1st
This will be a new regular feature to give you an update on the markets and how they affect mortgage rates.
Weekly Preview
Last Week: The Treasury markets saw some slight increase in interest rates in another volatile trade. Mortgage rates were essentially unchanged. The week was marked with Treasury selling another $113B of notes and surprising jumps in existing and new home sales (+7.6% and +14.8% respectively). Two reports on consumer confidence and sentiment were a little better than a month ago, but these are less significant than hard market data as both the Conference Board’s consumer confidence report and the U. of Michigan’s consumer sentiment report are mostly emotional readings predicated on how the stock market and interest rate markets are performing. By the end of the week, after continued high market volatility, the stock market ended with not much change from the previous week. The sovereign debt problems in Europe continue to be the dominant concern in the equity markets. Fitch, the rating agency, down-graded Spain’s sovereign debt rating from AAA to AA+, adding to the angst that debt issues may become more strained.
This Week: Expect more market volatility in the equity and interest rate markets. The stock market, based on the key indexes, is still too high given the concerns emanating from Europe and what we see as a slowdown in China’s expansion. The outward driver for US markets is captured in the movement of the euro currency; as it declines against the dollar, US stock markets will be pressured. The euro may find support at $1.20 dollars per one euro (Friday the level was $1.23). No Treasury borrowing this week; the giant this week is the May employment data on Friday (early estimates are an increase of 500K jobs with unemployment at 9.8%). Tuesday a key data point on the manufacturing sector (ISM index). Thursday it’s the ISM services sector report. Expect increased concerns that the US economy will slow based on the previous excessive bullish outlook that had rallied equity markets. No inflation and increasing concerns that the economic outlook is weakening will support low interest rates for many more months.
Trends in Real Estate ~ Interest Rates at All Time Low!
Interest Rates at All Time Low
Recently my broker, Windermere Professional Partners, pointed to a CNBC report that said interest rates were low due to the economic crisis in Europe. I thought that was interesting given the current real estate market. Go here to get that article.
Bankrate.com, which has been keeping track of mortgage interest rates for over 25 years, notes that the current interest rate on a 30-year loan is now at 4.87%. This rate is the lowest rate ever since Bankrate.com started keeping track. Even jumbo loans which are of prime interest in Gig Harbor are at all time lows. A jumbo loan – currently defined as a loan for over $417,000 – is now listed at 4.5%, which is down from close to 6% at this time last year.
“It’s the best time in our generation to buy,” says Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s. “It may be the best time in any generation. Mortgage rates are so low and with homes prices down and lots of inventory, you couldn’t pick a better time to buy ….
So a couple of questions come to mind. First, why are interest rates at an all time low, and why aren’t more people in the market to buy a house, since this is a historically great time to buy?
Trends in Real Estate ~ Interest Rates
Perhaps the second most popular question I get from people after they ask how’s business is “Where do you see interest rates going?”. Well, contrary to what most believe, the answer is that interest rates are fairly simple to figure out. Unfortunately the media has portrayed them as some sort of magical formula that only a few esoteric old men know and you are better off not asking about.
But the truth is, the interest rates for mortgages are mainly determined in the securitized mortgage market. Basically a mortgage backed security is one that has been bundled with other mortgages into a security similar to a stock. These securities are then traded and have a market value depending on the risk of the debt. So an A+ mortgage would be bundled with other A+ mortgages and have a market price higher than a B+ mortgage security.
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